Ranking the SoCon’s Non-Confere 2020 roster for tampa bay buccaneers nce Basketball Schedules for 2018-19
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For all of the posts in this series, visit the 2018-19 Non-Conference Scheduling Hub.
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Ranking The Teams
Over the last four seasons, the SoCon champion has found itself on either line 12 (2014, 2015) or 13 (2016. 2017) come Selection Sunday, a result which has been fairly common over the past 10 seasons. Just twice in the last decade has the conference’s lone NCAA representative found itself lower than a 14 seed. And with ETSU, Furman, and UNCG all making great strides in the four-year ranking over the past season, possibilities for another 12 or 13 are certainly out there for 2019.
Four-Year Rankings
KenPom Gaps For 2018-19
Indeed, 2018 double champion UNCG is expected to outperform its four-year ranking according to KenPom—by a whopping 46 places. Wofford, another traditional SoCon power, is projected to be 30 spots better, which is good for the top of the league, while The Citadel’s 56-place bump is good for the whole conference. On the other hand, Furman and ETSU are expected to take significant steps back, as is Chattanooga, which already finished last in its first season after Matt McCall’s departure for UMass.
Ranking The Schedules
Last season, the SoCon ranked in the top 12 in all scheduling categories and in the top 10 in the majority of them. But for 2018-19, the conference as a whole has taken a step back, even with Wofford ranking in the top 20 of the national average ranking. While no one ranks outside of the top 300, it’s a bit disappointing that just three teams are in the top 150 consistently. UNCG’s schedule, sitting at 238 in the super average, is particularly disappointing for a conference favorite.
Note: The number of asterisks (*) represent the number of pending games on a team’s schedule.
Schedule Ranking
Who Over- And Under-Scheduled?
The SoCon split right y-3 real madrid jersey down the middle in terms of teams that over- and under-scheduled, though only Mercer and Furman kept built slates that were relatively close to their recent histories. UNCG under-scheduled by almost 100 places, which again, is not a great idea for a conference favorite, at least in terms of March seeding.
Scheduling Gaps
Home, Power 7 Road, And Non-D1 Games
SoCon teams are playing exactly the same number of Power 7 road games as they did a season ago, while Wofford’s visit from North Carolina is the only such home game league members will get this season—half of last season’s total. One more non-D1 foe is on the league’s collective slate in 2018, while three fewer home games were lined up.
Non-Conference Games By League
Looking For A Deeper Season Preview?
Want more in-depth information about these teams beyond their schedules? Visit BlueRibbonYearbook.com to purchase your 2018-19 Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook, the most comprehensive preview of Division I men’s basketball out there.
FoPennants and Flags r the second season in a row, non-D1 teams and Big South opponents top the “opponent by conference” standings. The CAA and SEC return to the top five, while the OVC replaces the ACC. That Power 7 league scheduled five fewer SoCon matchups this season, while the OVC added a half-dozen. A full one-quarter of Division I leagues are completely absent from SoCon slates, compared to just five in 2017. The Atlantic 10 is the biggest surprise among the absentees, as the conference played six games against SoCon teams in 2017-18.
A handful of squads (non-D1 Hiwassee, Georgia State, High Point, UNC Asheville, UNCW, UT Martin) appear on three SoCon schedules. On the other hand, Furman has four Big South contests lined up all by itself.
Non-Conference Games By Quad
While UNC’s visit to Richardson Indoor Stadium is the lone Quad 1 or 2 home game SoCon teams will get this season, they’ll play 21 top 75 games on the road alone (according to the four-year ranking anyway). Just a paltry six of the conference’s 58 home games feature teams from outside Quad 4 or a non-D1 opponent. And thanks to the lack of league participation in quality off-campus exempt tournaments, there aren’t many decent neutral-site wins to be had either.
Team-By-Team Breakdown
Teams are listed in order of their Super Average Schedule Ranking. The number in front of an opponent name is its Four-Year Ranking. Logos via SportsLogos.net, except for The Citadel (Wikipedia).
18. Wofford Terriers
*Exempt Event: Bad Boy Mowers Battle 4 Atlantis (Mainland)
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Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (@Coastal Carolina, High Point (N), @North Carolina) and 2 losses (South Carolina, @UNC Asheville)
The Terriers won 21 games a season ago and reached the CollegeInsider.com Tournament, but none of those victories meant more than the December 20th one at North Carolina, a team that happens to visit Spartanburg this season. And that win over the Tar Heels wasn’t their only Power 7 victory of the season, as Wofford also defeated Georgia Tech on the Yellow Jackets’ visit to Upstate South Carolina. While there are three non-D1 teams on this slate and 347th-ranked Coppin State visits for the Battle 4 Atlantis subregional, this schedule gets a significant boost from the Tar Heels’ visit and five Power 7 road games.
112. Western Carolina Catamounts
*Exempt Event: Cancun Challenge (Mayan Bracket)
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Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (Hiwassee, UNC Asheville (N)) and 2 losses (@College of Charleston, High Point)
Scott Prosser, son of late Xavier and Wake Forest coach Skip, is the Catamounts’ new coach, replacing Larry Hunter, who passed away just two months after retiring from the job. Western Carolina might struggle to rebound from last season’s 13-19 mark while playing in Hunter’s memory, as this schedule is fairly daunting, with just three games scheduled for Cullowhee.
114. Furman Paladins
*Exempt Event: AdvoCare Invitational (Campus Only)
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Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 4 wins (Bob Jones, Elon, UNC Asheville, @UNCW) and 0 losses
The Paladins, 23-10 a season ago in Bon Richey’s maiden season, are one of two SoCon poster children for how the current exempt tournament rules might need some tightening up. Furman is visiting defending National Champion Villanova as the Wildcats’ fourth AdvoCare Invitational contest. But with the Paladins excluded from the eight-team bracket, they’re playing a pair of home games against non-D1 opponents as part of their tournament participation. Nova isn’t even the only Final Four team Furman will play in the season’s opening days, as they’ll visit Loyola Chicago too. But those two contests and a trip to LSU are the biggest challenges on a slate that looks weaker than it does upon first glance.
156. Mercer Bears
*Exempt Event: Wolfpack Classic
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Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: N/A
After posting a losing record for the first time in six seasons in 2016-17, Bob Hoffman’s Bears rebounded to 19-15 last time around. The biggest challenges on Mercer’s non-conference slate are matchups with a pair of Sun Belt contenders and in-state rivals Georgia Southern (in Macon) and Georgia State (in Atlanta), a second trip to Georgia’s capital to play Ivy favorite Harvard at the Hawks’ arena, and power conference trips to N.C. State and Florida.
206. VMI Keydets
*Exempt Event: Ohio Valley Hardwood Showcase
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Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (Presbyterian, Longwood) and 1 loss (@American)
The Keydets, who last won more than 10 games in 2014-15, are another team in an exempt event of questionable value this season. While VMI and a handful of other mid-majors will travel to Kentucky as part of the Ohio Valley Hardwood Showcase, they’re not meeting each other, as has been typical for UK’s events in recent seasons. Instead, VMI will play a pair of non-D1 home games as part of its participation. And with three such contests overall, a pair of games against bottom 50 squads, and another with transitional ASUN member North Alabama, the Keydets could be able to surpass last season’s non-conference win total of five. And that’s without winning a one of their half-dozen road games.
224. Chattanooga Mocs
*Exempt Event: Goldie and Herman Ungar Classic
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Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (Hiwassee, UT Martin, Charlotte) and 2 losses (@Tennesse Tech, Georgia State)
The Mocs, the SoCon’s NCAA rep in 2016, collapsed to just 10 wins a season ago, with six of those victories coming before conference play. Lamont Paris’ 2018-19 club might struggle to equal that total, even with five home games (including three against non-D1 opposition) on the schedule. That’s thanks to the eight contests set to be played away from McKenzie Arena—highlighted by trips to Michigan and Ole Miss and three-games at the exempt event South Alabama is hosting in Mobile.
230. ETSU Buccaneers
*Exempt Event: Cayman Islands Classic (Mainland)
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Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (Hiwassee, Georgia Southern) and 0 losses
In his three seasons in charge, Steve Forbes has won no fewer than 24 games in each, reaching the NCAAs in 2017. That means the Bucs are the type of team that going to have trouble building a strong non-conference slate, which is why they’re joining Mark Adams’ brainchild, the Alliance, next season. As for this season, road games at Georgia State, Creighton (as part of the Cayman Islands Classic), and Illinois are the heavy hitters. Meanwhile, ETSU will participate in a pair of bracketed events, the Cayman Islands subregional, where Sam Houston State will be the host Bucs’ main threat for the crown, and the Don Haskins Sun Bowl Invitational at UTEP, where ETSU will take on Wyoming in the semifinals.
238. UNCG Spartans
*Exempt Event: Delaware Invitational
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Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (Delaware, Elon, UNCW) and 0 losses
Like ETSU, 2018 SoCon champ UNCG also didn’t have the best luck in building its slate, particularly after putting up a total of 52 wins over the last two seasons. While Wes Miller’s Spartans will play at both LSU and Kentucky, they should roll through the rest of their games. That includes an exempt event at Delaware, with the Blue Hens returning the UNCG-hosted event of a season ago.
243. The Citadel Bulldogs
*Exempt Event: Continental Tire Las Vegas Invitational (On-Campus Only)
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Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (@High Point, James Madison) and 1 loss (@Campbell)
Duggar Baucom has the Bulldogs winning 10 or more games consistently at this point, but the Citadel has yet to make the leap into SoCon contention. After posting a 5-6 non-league mark a season ago, the Citadel is poised to reverse those numbers, thanks to a half-dozen winnable home contests and just two truly difficult road games—against 2018 NCAA teams Clemson and Texas.
276. Samford Bulldogs
*Exempt Event: Buckeye Basketball Classic
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Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (Alabama A&M) and 2 losses (@Jacksonville State, @Kennesaw State)
After getting the Bulldogs to the 20-win plateau in 2017, Scott Padgett saw his team slide down to the 10-victory mark a season ago, with Samford claiming just four non-league wins in 13 tries. This schedule aims to improve upon both totals, even with OVC power Belmont visiting Birmingham and the Bulldogs traveling to Ohio State and Tennessee. There are plenty of victories to be had beyond those three matchups.
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